Will “Expert Pollsters” Be Wrong Again in Georgia Runoff Elections

"American Flag" (CC BY 2.0) by Mike Mozart

On January 5, the runoff election in Georgia will be held. This will be the deciding factor for who will represent the state in the Senate and which party will control the Upper House. 

Last November 3, incumbent Senators David Perdue, Senator Kelly Loeffler, and Raphael Warnock failed to earn 50% of the vote. According to Georgia law, such matches must be decided by a majority of the electorate.

If Democrats win both of the seats, there will be a 50-50 split in the Senate. Democratic Vice President-elect Kamala will then provide the deciding vote. This scenario could also leave the Democratic party in control of the White House, Senate, and the House. 

The final poll on the previous elections has shown that the candidates seem to be in a close fight with each other. However, the General Election polls were inaccurate for both races, 2.5% off for Perdue vs. Ossoff, and 8.7% off for Loeffler vs. Warnock. In addition to that, the “expert” pollsters also incorrectly predicted that Ossoff would win against Perdue. 

These results led to speculations on whether these “expert pollsters” will be wrong again in their predictions. 

“David Perdue” (CC BY-SA 2.0) by Gage Skidmore

Starting from July to late October, Senator Perdue is leading Ossoff in the RCP polling average. However, in October, Ossoff rapidly closed in on Perdue and overtook him on October 29.

Latest Polls – Sen. David Perdue vs. Jon Ossoff

  • Fox 5 (1/3): Tie
  • Trafalgar (12/23 – 12/27): Ossoff +2%.
  • Emerson (12/14 – 12/16): Perdue +3%.
  • WXIA/SUSA (12/16 – 12/20): Ossoff +5%
  • RealClear Politics Polling Average (12/14 – 1/3): Ossoff +1%.

The average of the final poll has Ossoff at +0.7%. Perdue, on the other hand, beat Ossoff by 1.8% on Election Day.

“Vice President Mike Pence Attends a Ceremonial Swearing-in” (public domain) by The White House

Before the November General Election, the poll data suggested that Warnock is leading ahead of Loeffler. The data are shown as follows.

Latest Polls – Sen. Kelly Loeffler vs. Raphael Warnock

  • RealClear Politics Polling Average (12/14 – 1/3): Warnock +1.3%.
  • Fox 5 (1/3): Tie
  • Trafalgar (12/23 – 12/27): Warnock +1%.
  • WXIA/SUSA (12/16 – 12/20): Warnock +7%.
  • Emerson (12/14 – 12/16): Loeffler +3%.

There is also no major poll that correctly predicted the winner in both of the electoral race. Although the polling numbers’ reliability and accuracy are questionable, it is interesting to note that several discrepancies are seen between polls.

For instance, Fox 5 polls have shown that there will be a tie for both Democratic and Republican candidates, Emerson on the other hand, predicts that Republican candidates will emerge as the victor with a 3% lead. 

Last night, Trump and her daughter, Ivanka, took the stage at the GOP rally in Georgia. They were met with cheers and clapping as she told the crowd, “It is so incredible to be back here with so many amazing hardworking Georgia families who are fighting for our children’s future – each one of you.” She added and said, “and it’s so great to be back in Georgia with this warrior, my father, the people’s president,” while her father grinned and the crowd cheered in the background.

Ivanka also paid homage to her father, calling him “my warrior” and adding that he is “the people’s president.”

In the rally, Ivanka also acknowledges how his father is the tireless and tireless champion of the people and pledged that she would not stop fighting for everyone alongside Republican Senate candidates Loeffler and Perdue. 

Ivanka also claimed that these senate candidates have to win the Senate seat and be elected for the Senate again to fight for the Republicans before announcing the message that patriotism is alive in Georgia, stating, “and Georgia is going to keep freedom alive in America.”