President Trump Leading The Poll By 5 Points

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"President Trump Travels to Florida" (public domain) by The White House

President Trump is leading the poll in Texas with 50% support to Biden’s 45%, according to the latest data from the University of Texas/Tribune Poll.

“President Trump Participates in a Press Conference” (public domain) by The White House

President Trump and his running mate, Vice President Mike Pence, received strong support from the male voters with 55%-39% and white voters with 62%-34%. Despite the drastic swings of events and issues that arose during 2020, the nation’s top elected office’s contest had changed for the Texas voters. 

The latest poll resulted from the survey conducted between a period during the first presidential debate and the hospitalization of President Trump for coronavirus. Despite these swing of events, Texas voters are shown to favor the Republican candidate now compared to the data gathered last February, where it was then considered a hypothetical head-to-head race with 47%-43%. Meanwhile, in the following months, President Trump led with 49%-47% in April and 48%-44% in June.

Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas, noted the polls’ constancy since before Joe Biden was chosen as the Democrat candidate. He said what the poll really shows is how much of it is about Trump. To quote, professor Shaw stated that “The race is a marker for attitudes towards Trump. It really is a referendum.”

President Trump himself is a deciding issue for voters who are said to support Biden. Although 55% of them are voting for Joe Biden because they wanted him to become the President, 45% of the supporters of Democrats stated that Biden is their choice because they do not want Trump to win the presidency.

On the other hand, 81% of President Trump’s supporters said they want Trump to be elected, while 19% said they would vote for him because they do not want Biden to win the Presidential race.

In the presidential race, Democratic and Republican supporters overwhelmingly back their party’s candidate. However, independent voters give crucial numbers with 39% in favor of President Trump, 29% in favor of Joe Biden, and 32% for voters saying they have not formed an opinion yet. 

This 5% difference in support is in line with the prior polls taken before the Democrats picked Joe Biden as their candidate. 

Looking back at the data gathered in November 2019, President Trumps was 7% points ahead of Joe Biden in a hypothetical election matchup. Then, in the survey conducted in February or shortly before the coronavirus outbreak, Trump still leads the poll with 4% points apart. 

Although President Trump’s lead was small in these recent surveys, none of these results could be called a statistical tie.

Joe Biden’s numbers are less favorable than President Trump’s

“Joe Biden”(CC BY-SA 2.0) by Gage Skidmore

In the recent poll, Joe Biden’s numbers are less positive than that of President Trump’s. The data has shown that more voters have an unfavorable impression of Joe Biden with a 51% rate, and only 35% of the voters say they have a favorable impression of Biden. 

Last February, it can be seen that Joe Biden’s ratings were 53% negative and 33% positive. 

Female voters, however, are seen to have a split opinion on the Presidential race with 46%-46%. Meanwhile, male voters are seen to be solidly favoring Trump at 53%-41%

President Trump has strong support with white voters in Texas, with 60%-34% against Biden. However, the story for Hispanic and Black voters is more mixed. Black voters are seen to favor Biden with 74%-16% overwhelmingly. Hispanic voters, on the other hand, showed a 50%-40% preference.

More differences of opinion were seen based on geography, with 57% of the urban voters preferring Biden over Trump. However, President Trump is leading in suburban voters with 49%-43% and 67% with rural voters who favor the Republican candidate more than the Democrat.